The 2012 GOP Candidates

I’ve been thinking about different ways to categorize the current field of declared and potential 2012 Republican Presidential candidates.

Assuming this is the field, which candidates will battle over the same space? Which candidates share the same strengths, qualities and backgrounds?

Below are the candidates, ordered by background/experience, political base, and home region:

 

Background / Experience

 

Governor U.S. Rep. Other Govt. Outsider
Daniels Bachmann Giuliani Cain
Huckabee Gingrich Huntsman Trump
Johnson Paul Moore
Palin Santorum
Pawlenty
Roemer
Romney

 

Political Base

 

Business Nat’l Security Faith Limited Govt. Other
Bachmann   x
Bolton x
Cain x
Daniels x
Gingrich x
Giuliani x
Huckabee x
Johnson x
Moore x
Palin x
Paul x
Pawlenty x
Roemer x
Romney x
Santorum x
Trump x

 

Home Region

 

Northeast Midwest South Southwest Pacific
Bachmann   x
Bolton x
Cain x
Daniels x
Gingrich x
Giuliani x
Huckabee x
Johnson x
Moore x
Palin x
Paul x
Pawlenty x
Roemer x
Romney x
Santorum x
Trump x

 

Do you see any interesting patterns here? Do you think these factors will have an influence on the outcome of the Republican primary?

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Inherit the Fail

Bruce VanWyngarden

Bruce VanWyngarden

Bruce VanWyngarden’s hair is on fire with the Tennessee General Assembly’s latest bone-headed move. According to VanWyngarden, editor of the Memphis Flyer, the House has passed a bill that overturns the verdict of an 86-year-old court case.

The bill in question, HB 0368, “protects a teacher from discipline for teaching scientific subjects in an objective manner,” and was passed by a vote of 70 to 28.

According to the legislation’s two pages, the General Assembly seeks to create “an environment within public elementary and secondary schools that encourages students to explore scientific questions, learn about scientific evidence, develop critical thinking skills, and respond appropriately and respectfully to differences of opinion about controversial issues.” The policy “shall not be construed to promote any religious or non-religious doctrine” and permits teachers to “help students understand, analyze, critique, and review in an objective manner the scientific strengths and scientific weaknesses of existing scientific theories covered in the course being taught.”

Which ancient court case was “overturned” by this House action?

The Scopes “Monkey” Trial, of course.

But, wait, didn’t that case deal with a law that banned the objective teaching of a scientific theory, in favor of a prevailing religious doctrine? And didn’t that case result in the conviction of the ACLU’s hand-picked defendant, John Scopes (later set aside on a technicality)?

In other words, the legislation overturns a court case in which an instructor was convicted for teaching evolution? So it’s a win for objective teaching, scientific inquiry, and freedom of thought? That’s good, right?

Apparently not. VanWyngarden says the bill allows “creationism to be taught in public schools” while simultaneously being merely “a symbolic gesture, meant to appease the rubes and the GOP’s far-right base.” VanWyngarden calls its backers (including a third of the Democratic caucus who joined all but one Republican in voting yes) “morons” and “neanderthals.”

Perhaps instead of ensuring objectivity in science classrooms, the General Assembly should spend some time addressing the stunning historical illiteracy and general incompetence of alt-weekly journalists. A few remedial courses in science, economics, history, philosophy and civics might go a long way.

By the way, here are those Democratic morons and neaderthals:

HB0368 Democrats

Democrats who voted for HB 0368

Posted in Politics | 1 Comment

Senate 2010 Battleground Map

Earlier I put the RealClearPolitics Senate polls in spreadsheet form. Now here’s a flash map version with updated info. Each state up this year links to the Republican candidate.


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Key:

  Safe D   Lean D   Tossup   Lean R   Safe R
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House Battleground 2010

Since I put up the Senate spreadsheet, I thought it would only be fair to present the House races as well. Again, all categories based on RealClearPolitics rankings. A majority is 218, but 244 isn’t out of the question.

Republican Candidate State District Status Currently Incumbent Possible Rs
Don Chamberlain  Alabama 7 Safe D Democratic Artur Davis 435
Janet Contreras  Arizona 4 Safe D Democratic Ed Pastor 434
Ruth McClung  Arizona 7 Safe D Democratic Raul Grijalva 433
Loren Hanks  California 1 Safe D Democratic Mike Thompson 432
Gary Clift  California 10 Safe D Democratic John Garamendi 431
Mike Moloney  California 12 Safe D Democratic Jackie Speier 430
Forest Baker  California 13 Safe D Democratic Pete Stark 429
Dave Chapman  California 14 Safe D Democratic Anna Eshoo 428
Scott Kirkland  California 15 Safe D Democratic Mike Honda 427
Daniel Sahagun  California 16 Safe D Democratic Zoe Lofgren 426
Jeff Taylor  California 17 Safe D Democratic Sam Farr 425
Tom Watson  California 23 Safe D Democratic Lois Capps 424
Mark Reed  California 27 Safe D Democratic Brad Sherman 423
Merlin Froyd  California 28 Safe D Democratic Howard Berman 422
John Colbert  California 29 Safe D Democratic Adam Schiff 421
Chuck Wilkerson  California 30 Safe D Democratic Henry Waxman 420
Stephen Smith  California 31 Safe D Democratic Xavier Becerra 419
Ed Schmerling  California 32 Safe D Democratic Judy Chu 418
James Andion  California 33 Safe D Democratic Diane Watson 417
Wayne Miller  California 34 Safe D Democratic Lucille Roybal-Allard 416
Bruce Brown  California 35 Safe D Democratic Maxine Waters 415
Mattie Fein  California 36 Safe D Democratic Jane Harman 414
Star Parker  California 37 Safe D Democratic Laura Richardson 413
Robert Vaughn  California 38 Safe D Democratic Grace Napolitano 412
Larry Andre  California 39 Safe D Democratic Linda Sánchez 411
Scott Folkens  California 43 Safe D Democratic Joe Baca 410
Paul Smith  California 5 Safe D Democratic Doris Matsui 409
Nick Popaditch California 51 Safe D Democratic Bob Filner 408
Michael Crimmins  California 53 Safe D Democratic Susan Davis 407
Jim Judd  California 6 Safe D Democratic Lynn Woolsey 406
Rick Tubbs  California 7 Safe D Democratic George Miller 405
John Dennis  California 8 Safe D Democratic Nancy Pelosi 404
Gerald Hashimoto  California 9 Safe D Democratic Barbara Lee 403
Mike Fallon  Colorado 1 Safe D Democratic Diana DeGette 402
Stephen Bailey  Colorado 2 Safe D Democratic Jared Polis 401
Ann Brickley  Connecticut 1 Safe D Democratic John Larson 400
Janet Peckinpaugh  Connecticut 2 Safe D Democratic Joe Courtney 399
Larry Labriola  Connecticut 3 Safe D Democratic Rosa DeLauro 398
Mike Prendergast  Florida 11 Safe D Democratic Kathy Castor 397
- Florida 17 Safe D Democratic Kendrick Meek 396
Joe Budd  Florida 19 Safe D Democratic Ted Deutch 395
Karen Harrington  Florida 20 Safe D Democratic Debbie Wasserman Schultz 394
Bernard Sansaricq  Florida 23 Safe D Democratic Alcee Hastings 393
Mike Yost  Florida 3 Safe D Democratic Corrine Brown 392
Mike Crane  Georgia 13 Safe D Democratic David Scott 391
Liz Carter  Georgia 4 Safe D Democratic Hank Johnson 390
Fenn Little  Georgia 5 Safe D Democratic John Lewis 389
John Willoughby  Hawaii 2 Safe D Democratic Mazie Hirono 388
Ray Wardingley  Illinois 1 Safe D Democratic Bobby Rush 387
Teri Newman  Illinois 12 Safe D Democratic Jerry Costello 386
Isaac C. Hayes  Illinois 2 Safe D Democratic Jesse Jackson, Jr. 385
Michael Bendas  Illinois 3 Safe D Democratic Dan Lipinski 384
Israel Vasquez  Illinois 4 Safe D Democratic Luis Gutiérrez 383
David Ratowitz  Illinois 5 Safe D Democratic Michael Quigley 382
Mark Weiman  Illinois 7 Safe D Democratic Danny Davis 381
Joel Pollak  Illinois 9 Safe D Democratic Jan Schakowsky 380
Mark Leyva  Indiana 1 Safe D Democratic Pete Visclosky 379
Marvin Scott  Indiana 7 Safe D Democratic André Carson 378
Marcello Cardarelli  Maryland 2 Safe D Democratic Dutch Ruppersberger 377
Jim Wilhelm  Maryland 3 Safe D Democratic John Sarbanes 376
Robert Broadus  Maryland 4 Safe D Democratic Donna Edwards 375
Charles Lollar  Maryland 5 Safe D Democratic Steny Hoyer 374
Frank Mirable Jr.  Maryland 7 Safe D Democratic Elijah Cummings 373
Michael Lee Philips  Maryland 8 Safe D Democratic Chris Van Hollen Jr. 372
William Gunn  Massachusetts 1 Safe D Democratic John Olver 371
Thomas Wesley  Massachusetts 2 Safe D Democratic Richard Neal 370
Martin Lamb  Massachusetts 3 Safe D Democratic Jim McGovern 369
Sean Bielat  Massachusetts 4 Safe D Democratic Barney Frank 368
Gerry Dembrowski  Massachusetts 7 Safe D Democratic Ed Markey 367
- Massachusetts 8 Safe D Democratic Mike Capuano 366
Vernon Harrison  Massachusetts 9 Safe D Democratic Stephen Lynch 365
Don Volaric  Michigan 12 Safe D Democratic Sander Levin 364
John Hauler  Michigan 13 Safe D Democratic Carolyn Kilpatrick 363
Don Ukrainec  Michigan 14 Safe D Democratic John Conyers Jr. 362
John Kuipec  Michigan 5 Safe D Democratic Dale Kildee 361
Teresa Collett  Minnesota 4 Safe D Democratic Betty McCollum 360
Joel Demos  Minnesota 5 Safe D Democratic Keith Ellison 359
Lee Byberg  Minnesota 7 Safe D Democratic Collin Peterson 358
Chip Cravaack  Minnesota 8 Safe D Democratic Jim Oberstar 357
Bill Marcy  Mississippi 2 Safe D Democratic Bennie Thompson 356
Robyn Hamlin  Missouri 1 Safe D Democratic William Lacy Clay Jr. 355
Jacob Turk  Missouri 5 Safe D Democratic Emanuel Cleaver 354
Kenneth A. Wegner  Nevada 1 Safe D Democratic Shelley Berkley 353
Dale Glading  New Jersey 1 Safe D Democratic Rob Andrews 352
Michael Alonso  New Jersey 10 Safe D Democratic Don Payne 351
Henrietta Dwyer  New Jersey 13 Safe D Democratic Albio Sires 350
Anna C. Little  New Jersey 6 Safe D Democratic Frank Pallone 349
Roland Straten  New Jersey 8 Safe D Democratic Bill Pascrell 348
Michael Agosta  New Jersey 9 Safe D Democratic Steve Rothman 347
Diana Muniz  New York 10 Safe D Democratic Ed Towns 346
Hugh Carr  New York 11 Safe D Democratic Yvette Clarke 345
- New York 12 Safe D Democratic Nydia Velazquez 344
David Brumberg  New York 14 Safe D Democratic Carolyn Maloney 343
Michael Faulkner  New York 15 Safe D Democratic Charles Rangel 342
Frank Della Valle  New York 16 Safe D Democratic Jose Serrano 341
Anthony Mele  New York 17 Safe D Democratic Eliot Engel 340
James Russell  New York 18 Safe D Democratic Nita Lowey 339
John Gomez  New York 2 Safe D Democratic Steve Israel 338
Theodore Danz  New York 21 Safe D Democratic Paul Tonko 337
George Phillips  New York 22 Safe D Democratic Maurice Hinchey 336
Leonard Roberto  New York 27 Safe D Democratic Brian Higgins 335
Jill Rowland  New York 28 Safe D Democratic Louise Slaughter 334
Fran Becker New York 4 Safe D Democratic Carolyn McCarthy 333
James Milano  New York 5 Safe D Democratic Gary Ackerman 332
Asher Taub  New York 6 Safe D Democratic Gregory Meeks 331
Ken Reynolds  New York 7 Safe D Democratic Joseph Crowley 330
Susan Kone  New York 8 Safe D Democratic Jerrold Nadler 329
Bob Turner  New York 9 Safe D Democratic Anthony Weiner 328
Ashley Woolard  North Carolina 1 Safe D Democratic G. K. Butterfield 327
Greg Dority  North Carolina 12 Safe D Democratic Mel Watt 326
William Randall  North Carolina 13 Safe D Democratic Brad Miller 325
Peter Corrigan Ohio 10 Safe D Democratic Dennis Kucinich 324
- Ohio 11 Safe D Democratic Marcia Fudge 323
Jim Graham  Ohio 17 Safe D Democratic Tim Ryan 322
Rich Iott  Ohio 9 Safe D Democratic Marcy Kaptur 321
Delia Lopez  Oregon 3 Safe D Democratic Earl Blumenauer 320
- Pennsylvania 1 Safe D Democratic Bob Brady 319
Dee Adcock  Pennsylvania 13 Safe D Democratic Allyson Schwartz 318
Melissa Haluszczak  Pennsylvania 14 Safe D Democratic Mike Doyle 317
Rick Hellberg  Pennsylvania 2 Safe D Democratic Chaka Fattah 316
Mark Zaccaria  Rhode Island 2 Safe D Democratic Jim Langevin 315
Jim Pratt  South Carolina 6 Safe D Democratic Jim Clyburn 314
Charlotte Bergmann  Tennessee 9 Safe D Democratic Steve Cohen 313
Eddie Zamora  Texas 15 Safe D Democratic Ruben Hinojosa 312
Tim Besco  Texas 16 Safe D Democratic Silvestre Reyes 311
John Faulk  Texas 18 Safe D Democratic Sheila Jackson Lee 310
Clayton Trotter  Texas 20 Safe D Democratic Charlie Gonzalez 309
Donna Campbell  Texas 25 Safe D Democratic Lloyd Doggett 308
Blake Farenthold  Texas 27 Safe D Democratic Solomon Ortiz 307
Bryan Underwood  Texas 28 Safe D Democratic Henry Cuellar 306
Roy Morales  Texas 29 Safe D Democratic Gene Green 305
Stephen Broden  Texas 30 Safe D Democratic Eddie Bernice Johnson 304
Steve Mueller  Texas 9 Safe D Democratic Al Green 303
Paul Beaudry  Vermont At Large Safe D Democratic Peter Welch 302
Chuck Smith  Virginia 3 Safe D Democratic Bobby Scott 301
Patrick Murray  Virginia 8 Safe D Democratic Jim Moran 300
James Watkins  Washington 1 Safe D Democratic Jay Inslee 299
Doug Cloud  Washington 6 Safe D Democratic Norm Dicks 298
- Washington 7 Safe D Democratic Jim McDermott 297
Chad Lee  Wisconsin 2 Safe D Democratic Tammy Baldwin 296
Dan Sebring  Wisconsin 4 Safe D Democratic Gwen Moore 295
Beth Anne Rankin  Arkansas 4 Likely D Democratic Mike Ross 294
Raymond McKinney  Georgia 12 Likely D Democratic John Barrow 293
Raul Labrador  Idaho 1 Likely D Democratic Walt Minnick 292
Joseph Cao  Louisiana 2 Likely D Republican Joseph Cao 291
Jonathan Golnik  Massachusetts 5 Likely D Democratic Niki Tsongas 290
Bill Hudak  Massachusetts 6 Likely D Democratic John Tierney 289
Rob Steele  Michigan 15 Likely D Democratic John Dingell 288
Randy Demmer  Minnesota 1 Likely D Democratic Tim Walz 287
Steven Palazzo  Mississippi 4 Likely D Democratic Gene Taylor 286
Ed Martin  Missouri 3 Likely D Democratic Russ Carnahan 285
Tom Mullins  New Mexico 3 Likely D Democratic Ben Lujan 284
B.J. Lawson  North Carolina 4 Likely D Democratic David Price 283
Bill Johnson  Ohio 6 Likely D Democratic Charlie Wilson 282
Charles Thompson  Oklahoma 2 Likely D Democratic Dan Boren 281
Rob Cornilles  Oregon 1 Likely D Democratic David Wu 280
Art Robinson  Oregon 4 Likely D Democratic Peter DeFazio 279
John Loughlin  Rhode Island 1 Likely D Democratic Patrick Kennedy 278
David Hall  Tennessee 5 Likely D Democratic Jim Cooper 277
Morgan Philpot  Utah 2 Likely D Democratic Jim Matheson 276
Michael Clarke Berryhill  California 18 Leans D Democratic Dennis Cardoza 275
Van Tran California 47 Leans D Democratic Loretta Sanchez 274
Ryan Frazier  Colorado 7 Leans D Democratic Ed Perlmutter 273
Dan Debicella  Connecticut 4 Leans D Democratic Jim Himes 272
Sam Caligiuri  Connecticut 5 Leans D Democratic Chris Murphy 271
Glen Urquhart  Delaware At Large Leans D Republican Michael Castle 270
Mike Keown  Georgia 2 Leans D Democratic Sanford Bishop 269
Charles Djou  Hawaii 1 Leans D Republican Charles Djou 268
Joe Walsh  Illinois 8 Leans D Democratic Melissa Bean 267
Jackie Walorski  Indiana 2 Leans D Democratic Joe Donnelly 266
Benjamin Lange  Iowa 1 Leans D Democratic Bruce Braley 265
Mariannette Miller-Meeks  Iowa 2 Leans D Democratic David Loebsack 264
Brad Zaun  Iowa 3 Leans D Democratic Leonard Boswell 263
Todd Lally  Kentucky 3 Leans D Democratic John Yarmuth 262
Andy Barr  Kentucky 6 Leans D Democratic Ben Chandler 261
Dean Peter Scontras  Maine 1 Leans D Democratic Chellie Pingree 260
Jason Levesque  Maine 2 Leans D Democratic Mike Michaud 259
Scott M. Sipprelle  New Jersey 12 Leans D Democratic Rush Holt 258
Jon Runyan  New Jersey 3 Leans D Democratic John Adler 257
Chris Gibson  New York 20 Leans D Democratic Scott Murphy 256
Matt Doheny  New York 23 Leans D Democratic Bill Owens 255
Ann Marie Buerkle  New York 25 Leans D Democratic Dan Maffei 254
Renee Ellmers  North Carolina 2 Leans D Democratic Bob Etheridge 253
Ilario Pantano  North Carolina 7 Leans D Democratic Mike McIntyre 252
Dave Argall  Pennsylvania 17 Leans D Democratic Tim Holden 251
Keith Rothfuss  Pennsylvania 4 Leans D Democratic Jason Altmire 250
Scott DesJarlais  Tennessee 4 Leans D Democratic Lincoln Davis 249
John Koster  Washington 2 Leans D Democratic Rick Larsen 248
Dick Muri  Washington 9 Leans D Democratic Adam Smith 247
Spike Maynard  West Virginia 3 Leans D Democratic Nick Rahall 246
Dan Kapanke  Wisconsin 3 Leans D Democratic Ron Kind 245
Martha Roby  Alabama 2 Toss up Democratic Bobby Bright 244
Paul Gosar  Arizona 1 Toss up Democratic Ann Kirkpatrick 243
David Schweikert  Arizona 5 Toss up Democratic Harry Mitchell 242
Jesse Kelly  Arizona 8 Toss up Democratic Gabrielle Giffords 241
David Harmer  California 11 Toss up Democratic Jerry McNerney 240
Andy Vidak  California 20 Toss up Democratic Jim Costa 239
Scott Tipton  Colorado 3 Toss up Democratic John Salazar 238
Steve Southerland  Florida 2 Toss up Democratic Allen Boyd 237
Allen West  Florida 22 Toss up Democratic Ron Klein 236
Austin Scott  Georgia 8 Toss up Democratic Jim Marshall 235
Robert Dold  Illinois 10 Toss up Republican Mark Kirk 234
Randy Hultgren  Illinois 14 Toss up Democratic Bill Foster 233
Bobby Schilling  Illinois 17 Toss up Democratic Phil Hare 232
Todd Young  Indiana 9 Toss up Democratic Baron Hill 231
Jeff Perry  Massachusetts 10 Toss up Democratic Bill Delahunt 230
Andrew Raczkowski  Michigan 9 Toss up Democratic Gary Peters 229
Vicky Hartzler  Missouri 4 Toss up Democratic Ike Skelton 228
Joe Heck  Nevada 3 Toss up Democratic Dina Titus 227
Jon Barela  New Mexico 1 Toss up Democratic Martin Heinrich 226
Randy Altschuler  New York 1 Toss up Democratic Tim Bishop 225
Mike Grimm  New York 13 Toss up Democratic Michael McMahon 224
Nan Hayworth  New York 19 Toss up Democratic John Hall 223
Richard Hanna  New York 24 Toss up Democratic Mike Arcuri 222
Jeff Miller  North Carolina 11 Toss up Democratic Heath Shuler 221
Tom Ganley  Ohio 13 Toss up Democratic Betty Sutton 220
Bob Gibbs  Ohio 18 Toss up Democratic Zack Space 219
Scott Bruun  Oregon 5 Toss up Democratic Kurt Schrader 218
Tom Marino  Pennsylvania 10 Toss up Democratic Chris Carney 217
Tim Burns  Pennsylvania 12 Toss up Democratic Mark Critz 216
Mike Kelly  Pennsylvania 3 Toss up Democratic Kathy Dahlkemper 215
Mick Mulvaney  South Carolina 5 Toss up Democratic John Spratt 214
Kristi Noem  South Dakota At Large Toss up Democratic Stephanie Herseth Sandlin 213
Quico Canseco  Texas 23 Toss up Democratic Ciro Rodriguez 212
Keith Fimian  Virginia 11 Toss up Democratic Gerry Connolly 211
Scott Rigell  Virginia 2 Toss up Democratic Glenn Nye 210
Morgan Griffith  Virginia 9 Toss up Democratic Rick Boucher 209
David McKinley  West Virginia 1 Toss up Democratic Alan Mollohan 208
Reid Ribble  Wisconsin 8 Toss up Democratic Steve Kagen 207
Rick Crawford  Arkansas 1 Leans R Democratic Marion Berry 206
Cory Gardner  Colorado 4 Leans R Democratic Betsy Markey 205
Sandy Adams  Florida 24 Leans R Democratic Suzanne Kosmas 204
Dan Webster  Florida 8 Leans R Democratic Alan Grayson 203
Adam Kinzinger  Illinois 11 Leans R Democratic Debbie Halvorson 202
Larry Bucshon  Indiana 8 Leans R Democratic Brad Ellsworth 201
Kevin Yoder  Kansas 3 Leans R Democratic Dennis Moore 200
Andy Harris  Maryland 1 Leans R Democratic Frank Kratovil 199
Dan Benishek  Michigan 1 Leans R Democratic Bart Stupak 198
Tim Walberg  Michigan 7 Leans R Democratic Mark Schauer 197
Alan Nunnelee  Mississippi 1 Leans R Democratic Travis Childers 196
Frank Guinta  New Hampshire 1 Leans R Democratic Carol Shea-Porter 195
Charlie Bass  New Hampshire 2 Leans R Democratic Paul Hodes 194
Steve Pearce  New Mexico 2 Leans R Democratic Harry Teague 193
Harold Johnson  North Carolina 8 Leans R Democratic Larry Kissell 192
Rick Berg  North Dakota At Large Leans R Democratic Earl Pomeroy 191
Steve Chabot  Ohio 1 Leans R Democratic Steve Driehaus 190
Steve Stivers  Ohio 15 Leans R Democratic Mary Jo Kilroy 189
Jim Renacci  Ohio 16 Leans R Democratic John Boccieri 188
Lou Barletta  Pennsylvania 11 Leans R Democratic Paul Kanjorski 187
Charlie Dent  Pennsylvania 15 Leans R Republican Charlie Dent 186
Jim Gerlach  Pennsylvania 6 Leans R Republican Jim Gerlach 185
Pat Meehan  Pennsylvania 7 Leans R Democratic Joe Sestak 184
Mike Fitzpatrick  Pennsylvania 8 Leans R Democratic Patrick Murhy 183
Stephen Fincher  Tennessee 8 Leans R Democratic John Tanner 182
Bill Flores  Texas 17 Leans R Democratic Chet Edwards 181
Robert Hurt  Virginia 5 Leans R Democratic Tom Perriello 180
Jaime Herrera  Washington 3 Leans R Democratic Brian Baird 179
Sean Duffy  Wisconsin 7 Leans R Democratic Dave Obey 178
Mo Brooks  Alabama 5 Likely R Republican Parker Griffith 177
Ben Quayle  Arizona 3 Likely R Republican John Shadegg 176
Tim Griffin  Arkansas 2 Likely R Democratic Vic Snyder 175
Dan Lungren  California 3 Likely R Republican Dan Lungren 174
Mary Bono Mack  California 45 Likely R Republican Mary Bono 173
Dennis Ross  Florida 12 Likely R Republican Adam Putnam 172
David Rivera  Florida 25 Likely R Republican Mario Diaz-Balart 171
Jeff Landry Louisiana 3 Likely R Democratic Charlie Melancon 170
Michele Bachmann  Minnesota 6 Likely R Republican Michele Bachmann 169
Lee Terry  Nebraska 2 Likely R Republican Lee Terry 168
Tom Reed  New York 29 Likely R Democratic vacant 167
Pat Tiberi  Ohio 12 Likely R Republican Pat Tiberi 166
Diane Black  Tennessee 6 Likely R Democratic Bart Gordon 165
Dave Reichert  Washington 8 Likely R Republican Dave Reichert 164
Jo Bonner  Alabama 1 Safe R Republican Jo Bonner 163
Mike Rogers  Alabama 3 Safe R Republican Mike Rogers 162
Robert Aderholt  Alabama 4 Safe R Republican Robert Aderholt 161
Spencer Bachus  Alabama 6 Safe R Republican Spencer Bachus 160
Don Young  Alaska At Large Safe R Republican Don Young 159
Trent Franks  Arizona 2 Safe R Republican Trent Franks 158
Jeff Flake  Arizona 6 Safe R Republican Jeff Flake 157
Steve Womack  Arkansas 3 Safe R Republican John Boozman 156
Jeff Denham  California 19 Safe R Republican George Radanovich 155
Wally Herger  California 2 Safe R Republican Wally Herger 154
Devin Nunes  California 21 Safe R Republican Devin Nunes 153
Kevin McCarthy  California 22 Safe R Republican Kevin McCarthy 152
Elton Gallegly  California 24 Safe R Republican Elton Gallegly 151
Howard McKeon  California 25 Safe R Republican Howard McKeon 150
David Dreier  California 26 Safe R Republican David Dreier 149
Tom McClintock  California 4 Safe R Republican Tom McClintock 148
Ed Royce  California 40 Safe R Republican Ed Royce 147
Jerry Lewis  California 41 Safe R Republican Jerry Lewis 146
Gary Miller  California 42 Safe R Republican Gary Miller 145
Ken Calvert  California 44 Safe R Republican Ken Calvert 144
Dana Rohrabacher  California 46 Safe R Republican Dana Rohrabacher 143
John Campbell  California 48 Safe R Republican John Campbell 142
Darrell Issa  California 49 Safe R Republican Darrell Issa 141
Brian Bilbray  California 50 Safe R Republican Brian Bilbray 140
Duncan D. Hunter  California 52 Safe R Republican Duncan D. Hunter 139
Doug Lamborn  Colorado 5 Safe R Republican Doug Lamborn 138
Mike Coffman  Colorado 6 Safe R Republican Mike Coffman 137
Jeff Miller  Florida 1 Safe R Republican Jeff Miller 136
Bill Young  Florida 10 Safe R Republican Bill Young 135
Vern Buchanan  Florida 13 Safe R Republican Vern Buchanan 134
Connie Mack  Florida 14 Safe R Republican Connie Mack IV 133
Bill Posey  Florida 15 Safe R Republican Bill Posey 132
Tom Rooney  Florida 16 Safe R Republican Tom Rooney 131
Ileana Ros-Lehtinen  Florida 18 Safe R Republican Ileana Ros-Lehtinen 130
Mario Diaz-Balart  Florida 21 Safe R Republican Lincoln Diaz-Balart 129
Ander Crenshaw  Florida 4 Safe R Republican Ander Crenshaw 128
Rich Nugent  Florida 5 Safe R Republican Ginny Brown-Waite 127
Cliff Stearns  Florida 6 Safe R Republican Cliff Stearns 126
John Mica  Florida 7 Safe R Republican John Mica 125
Gus Bilirakis  Florida 9 Safe R Republican Gus Bilirakis 124
Jack Kingston  Georgia 1 Safe R Republican Jack Kingston 123
Paul Broun  Georgia 10 Safe R Republican Paul Broun 122
Phil Gingrey  Georgia 11 Safe R Republican Phil Gingrey 121
Lynn Westmoreland  Georgia 3 Safe R Republican Lynn Westmoreland 120
Tom Price  Georgia 6 Safe R Republican Tom Price 119
Rob Woodall  Georgia 7 Safe R Republican John Linder 118
Tom Graves  Georgia 9 Safe R Republican Tom Graves 117
Mike Simpson  Idaho 2 Safe R Republican Mike Simpson 116
Judy Biggert  Illinois 13 Safe R Republican Judy Biggert 115
Tim Johnson  Illinois 15 Safe R Republican Tim Johnson 114
Donald Manzullo  Illinois 16 Safe R Republican Donald Manzullo 113
Aaron Schock  Illinois 18 Safe R Republican Aaron Schock 112
John Shimkus  Illinois 19 Safe R Republican John Shimkus 111
Peter Roskam  Illinois 6 Safe R Republican Peter Roskam 110
Marlin Stutzman  Indiana 3 Safe R Republican vacant 109
Todd Rokita  Indiana 4 Safe R Republican Steve Buyer 108
Dan Burton  Indiana 5 Safe R Republican Dan Burton 107
Mike Pence  Indiana 6 Safe R Republican Mike Pence 106
Tom Latham  Iowa 4 Safe R Republican Tom Latham 105
Steve King  Iowa 5 Safe R Republican Steve King 104
Tim Huelskamp  Kansas 1 Safe R Republican Jerry Moran 103
Lynn Jenkins  Kansas 2 Safe R Republican Lynn Jenkins 102
Mike Pompeo  Kansas 4 Safe R Republican Todd Tiahrt 101
Ed Whitfield  Kentucky 1 Safe R Republican Ed Whitfield 100
Brett Guthrie  Kentucky 2 Safe R Republican Brett Guthrie 99
Geoff Davis  Kentucky 4 Safe R Republican Geoff Davis 98
Hal Rogers  Kentucky 5 Safe R Republican Hal Rogers 97
Steve Scalise  Louisiana 1 Safe R Republican Steve Scalise 96
John Fleming  Louisiana 4 Safe R Republican John Fleming 95
Rodney Alexander  Louisiana 5 Safe R Republican Rodney Alexander 94
Bill Cassidy  Louisiana 6 Safe R Republican Bill Cassidy 93
Charles Boustany  Louisiana 7 Safe R Republican Charles Boustany 92
Roscoe Bartlett  Maryland 6 Safe R Republican Roscoe Bartlett 91
Candice Miller  Michigan 10 Safe R Republican Candice Miller 90
Thad McCotter  Michigan 11 Safe R Republican Thad McCotter 89
Bill Huizenga  Michigan 2 Safe R Republican Pete Hoekstra 88
Justin Amash  Michigan 3 Safe R Republican Vern Ehlers 87
Dave Camp  Michigan 4 Safe R Republican Dave Camp 86
Fred Upton  Michigan 6 Safe R Republican Fred Upton 85
Mike Rogers  Michigan 8 Safe R Republican Mike Rogers 84
John Kline  Minnesota 2 Safe R Republican John Kline 83
Erik Paulsen  Minnesota 3 Safe R Republican Erik Paulsen 82
Gregg Harper  Mississippi 3 Safe R Republican Gregg Harper 81
Todd Akin  Missouri 2 Safe R Republican Todd Akin 80
Sam Graves  Missouri 6 Safe R Republican Sam Graves 79
Billy Long  Missouri 7 Safe R Republican Roy Blunt 78
Jo Ann Emerson  Missouri 8 Safe R Republican Jo Ann Emerson 77
Blaine Luetkemeyer  Missouri 9 Safe R Republican Blaine Luetkemeyer 76
Denny Rehberg  Montana At Large Safe R Republican Denny Rehberg 75
Jeff Fortenberry  Nebraska 1 Safe R Republican Jeff Fortenberry 74
Adrian Smith  Nebraska 3 Safe R Republican Adrian Smith 73
Dean Heller  Nevada 2 Safe R Republican Dean Heller 72
Rodney Frelinghuysen  New Jersey 11 Safe R Republican Rodney Frelinghuysen 71
Frank LoBiondo  New Jersey 2 Safe R Republican Frank LoBiondo 70
Chris Smith  New Jersey 4 Safe R Republican Chris Smith 69
Scott Garrett  New Jersey 5 Safe R Republican Scott Garrett 68
Leonard Lance  New Jersey 7 Safe R Republican Leonard Lance 67
Chris Lee  New York 26 Safe R Republican Chris Lee 66
Peter King  New York 3 Safe R Republican Peter King 65
Patrick McHenry  North Carolina 10 Safe R Republican Patrick McHenry 64
Walter Jones  North Carolina 3 Safe R Republican Walter Jones Jr. 63
Virginia Foxx  North Carolina 5 Safe R Republican Virginia Foxx 62
Howard Coble  North Carolina 6 Safe R Republican Howard Coble 61
Sue Myrick  North Carolina 9 Safe R Republican Sue Myrick 60
Steve LaTourette  Ohio 14 Safe R Republican Steve LaTourette 59
Jean Schmidt  Ohio 2 Safe R Republican Jean Schmidt 58
Mike Turner  Ohio 3 Safe R Republican Mike Turner 57
Jim Jordan  Ohio 4 Safe R Republican Jim Jordan 56
Bob Latta  Ohio 5 Safe R Republican Bob Latta 55
Steve Austria  Ohio 7 Safe R Republican Steve Austria 54
John Boehner  Ohio 8 Safe R Republican John Boehner 53
John Sullivan  Oklahoma 1 Safe R Republican John Sullivan 52
Frank Lucas  Oklahoma 3 Safe R Republican Frank Lucas 51
Tom Cole  Oklahoma 4 Safe R Republican Tom Cole 50
James Lankford  Oklahoma 5 Safe R Republican Mary Fallin 49
Greg Walden  Oregon 2 Safe R Republican Greg Walden 48
Joe Pitts  Pennsylvania 16 Safe R Republican Joe Pitts 47
Tim Murphy  Pennsylvania 18 Safe R Republican Tim Murphy 46
Todd Platts  Pennsylvania 19 Safe R Republican Todd Platts 45
G.T. Thompson  Pennsylvania 5 Safe R Republican G.T. Thompson 44
Bill Shuster  Pennsylvania 9 Safe R Republican Bill Shuster 43
Tim Scott  South Carolina 1 Safe R Republican Henry Brown, Jr. 42
Joe Wilson  South Carolina 2 Safe R Republican Joe Wilson 41
Jeff Duncan  South Carolina 3 Safe R Republican J. Gresham Barrett 40
Trey Gowdy  South Carolina 4 Safe R Republican Bob Inglis 39
Phil Roe  Tennessee 1 Safe R Republican Phil Roe 38
Jimmy Duncan Jr.  Tennessee 2 Safe R Republican Jimmy Duncan Jr. 37
Charles Fleischmann  Tennessee 3 Safe R Republican Zach Wamp 36
Marsha Blackburn  Tennessee 7 Safe R Republican Marsha Blackburn 35
Louie Gohmert  Texas 1 Safe R Republican Louie Gohmert 34
Michael McCaul  Texas 10 Safe R Republican Michael McCaul 33
Mike Conaway  Texas 11 Safe R Republican Mike Conaway 32
Kay Granger  Texas 12 Safe R Republican Kay Granger 31
Mac Thornberry  Texas 13 Safe R Republican Mac Thornberry 30
Ron Paul  Texas 14 Safe R Republican Ron Paul 29
Randy Neugebauer  Texas 19 Safe R Republican Randy Neugebauer 28
Ted Poe  Texas 2 Safe R Republican Ted Poe 27
Lamar Smith  Texas 21 Safe R Republican Lamar Smith 26
Pete Olson  Texas 22 Safe R Republican Pete Olson 25
Kenny Marchant  Texas 24 Safe R Republican Kenny Marchant 24
Michael Burgess  Texas 26 Safe R Republican Michael Burgess 23
Sam Johnson  Texas 3 Safe R Republican Sam Johnson 22
John Carter  Texas 31 Safe R Republican John Carter 21
Pete Sessions  Texas 32 Safe R Republican Pete Sessions 20
Ralph Hall  Texas 4 Safe R Republican Ralph Hall 19
Jeb Hensarling  Texas 5 Safe R Republican Jeb Hensarling 18
Joe Barton  Texas 6 Safe R Republican Joe Barton 17
John Culberson  Texas 7 Safe R Republican John Culberson 16
Kevin Brady  Texas 8 Safe R Republican Kevin Brady 15
Rob Bishop  Utah 1 Safe R Republican Rob Bishop 14
Jason Chaffetz  Utah 3 Safe R Republican Jason Chaffetz 13
Rob Wittman  Virginia 1 Safe R Republican Rob Wittman 12
Frank Wolf  Virginia 10 Safe R Republican Frank Wolf 11
Randy Forbes  Virginia 4 Safe R Republican Randy Forbes 10
Bob Goodlatte  Virginia 6 Safe R Republican Bob Goodlatte 9
Eric Cantor  Virginia 7 Safe R Republican Eric Cantor 8
Doc Hastings  Washington 4 Safe R Republican Doc Hastings 7
Cathy McMorris Rodgers  Washington 5 Safe R Republican Cathy McMorris Rodgers 6
Shelley Capito  West Virginia 2 Safe R Republican Shelley Capito 5
Paul Ryan  Wisconsin 1 Safe R Republican Paul Ryan 4
Jim Sensenbrenner  Wisconsin 5 Safe R Republican Jim Sensenbrenner 3
Tom Petri  Wisconsin 6 Safe R Republican Tom Petri 2
Cynthia Lummis  Wyoming At Large Safe R Republican Cynthia Lummis 1
Posted in Politics | 4 Comments

Senate Battleground 2010

Here’s the state of the U.S. Senate races according to RealClearPolitics. Because of early retirements and other factors, there are 37 seats up for election this year. The Republicans have a fair chance of reaching 50 seats, but getting to 51 seems like a stretch. Here’s the list from least to most likely Republican victories:

Republican Candidate State Status Spread Currently Replaces Possible Rs
John Roco HI Safe D -48 D Dan Inouye 60
Len Britton VT Safe D -30 D Patrick Leahy 59
Jay Townsend NY Safe D -21 D Charles Schumer 58
Jim Huffman OR Likely D -16 D Ron Wyden 57
Eric Wargotz MD Safe D -16 D Barbara Mikulski 56
Christine O’Donnell DE Likely D -16 D Joe Biden 55
Joe DioGuardi NY Lean D -11 D Hillary Clinton 54
Linda McMahon CT Lean D -8 D Christopher Dodd 53
Carly Fiorina CA Lean D -6 D Barbara Boxer 52
Dino Rossi WA Lean D -6 D Patty Murray 51
John Raese WV Toss up -2 D Robert Byrd 50
Sharron Angle NV Toss up -1 D Harry Reid 49
Mark Kirk IL Toss up 2 D Barack Obama 48
Ken Buck CO Toss up 2 D Ken Salazar 47
Roy Blunt MO Lean R 6 R 46
Rand Paul KY Lean R 6 R 45
Pat Toomey PA Lean R 6 D Arlen Spectre 44
Kelly Ayotte NH Lean R 6 R 43
Ron Johnson WI Lean R 8 D Russ Feingold 42
Marco Rubio FL Lean R 11 R 41
Rob Portman OH Likely R 14 R 40
Joe Miller AK Lean R 15 R 39
David Vitter LA Likely R 15 R 38
Dan Coats IN Likely R 16 D Evan Bayh 37
Richard Burr NC Likely R 16 R 36
John McCain AZ Safe R 17 R 35
Charles Grassley IA Likely R 18 R 34
Johnny Isakson GA Safe R 19 R 33
John Boozman AR Safe R 24 D Blanche Lincoln 32
Mike Lee UT Safe R 27 R 31
Richard Shelby AL Safe R 28 R 30
Jerry Moran KS Safe R 42 R 29
John Hoeven ND Safe R 43 D Byron Dorgan 28
Tom Coburn OK Safe R 43 R 27
Mike Crapo ID Safe R 44 R 26
John Thune SD Safe R 100 R 25
Jim DeMint SC Safe R 100 R 24
Posted in Politics | 4 Comments